NBIS Nebius Group
InfrastructurePosition Summary
Shares
4
Avg Price
$98.80
Cost Basis
$395
Conviction
4/10
Investment Thesis
AI-native neocloud with $46B contracted pipeline (Meta $27B, Microsoft, NVIDIA $2B). 68.6% gross margins. First Vera Rubin deployer.
Key Arguments
Bull Case
NVIDIA-backed AI cloud infrastructure. $46B contracted pipeline de-risks revenue. 830% Q4 YoY cloud growth.
Bear Case
$4.9B debt, $4.34B convertible notes (15-25% dilution risk), FCF -$3.7B, profitability not until 2028. Customer concentration on Meta.
What Would Make Us Sell
FY2026 revenue below $2.0B or Microsoft/Meta contract cancellation or cash runway below 6 months.